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Being Decisive, The Economics of Crypto, & Understanding Bitcoin (Reading Notes 7.24.18)

Resource: The time/decision gap
Link: https://seths.blog/2018/07/the-timedecision-gap/

Thoughts/Reflections:

Make decisions. Don’t use buying time as a tool for hiding from the responsibilities that come with saying “yes” or “no.”

Quotes/Excerpts:

“You don’t need more time, you just need to decide.” Easy to say, but hard to embrace. Here’s what I meant: Deciding is difficult, because decisions bring responsibility. It’s better to not decide, the lizard brain says. How to not decide? Ask for more time. If you have more time, you can move away from the decision. Maybe someone else will make it for you. Maybe it won’t need to be made at all. But…That’s our work. We don’t make stuff as much as we make decisions.”

Resource: Thomas Lee Presents The Economics of Cryptocurrencies | Upfront Summit 2018
Links: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGberGnxiJk

Thoughts/Reflections:

Fiat currencies depend quite heavily on people’s trust in their government. In many countries outside the U.S., there tends to be less faith in the government. Moreover, among millennials, there seems to be less trust in the bank (nealy 90% lack this trust). Digital currencies are already in demand and will continue to be precisely because of factors like this.

The kind of volatility that we now see with cryptocurrency is quite typical for the emergence of new asset classes.

Cryptocurrencies show a patter of being uncorrelated to other markets. This observation is causing more institutional investors and portfolio managers to look at crypto as a useful hedge. This will result in an influx of institutional money into crypto over time.

Quotes:

“This is not the Internet bubble. This is a lot more like emerging markets becoming an asset class. I think that’s really the appropriate analog.”

“Bitcoin and crypto are uncorrelated to other markets right now. That is almost a holy grail for portfolio allocation.”

“Bitcoin and blockchain are attractive outside the U.S. because of the inherent structures of those regions. Regions with unstable financial systems or governance make bitcoin more attractive.”

“Let’s look at how people look at trust in terms of government because monetary systems are reliant on trust this is a Pew Research survey and the question they asked is “do you trust the government to do the right thing?” The level of trust in the government is at the lowest levels in 50 years so never has the average person more mistrusted the government and again. Monetary systems are very reliant on individuals trusting their government but this is a bigger problem outside the u.s.. This same survey question was asked outside the US and the shaded area are the countries that trust their governments even less than the US so we’re looking at countries like Brazil, Argentina, South Korea, Italy, Greece. Not surprisingly these are the countries where digital currency development is flourishing so there is a very high correlation between the lack of trust in their government and the blossoming of digital currencies and again what we have to keep mind were in the u.s. So the dollar we’re comfortable with the dollar being the default currency outside the US many people would rather not have things denominated in dollars.”

Resource: Bitcoin Fireside Chat with Chamath Palihapitiya – Coinsumm.it
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NV5ubkGQUes

Thoughts/Reflections:

New tools don’t become mainstream until you can get people who neither care about nor believe in the ideology to use them.

Reminds me of —> “You don’t get new technologies from the mainstream. You get them from the fringe.” Marc Andreesen

Excerpts/Quotes:

“It’s probably the single biggest high-beta investment opportunity of our lifetime. I just don’t know how else to say it. Simply put. That’s what it is. That’s why, honestly, I think it should be owned by as many people as possible because I think…it would be better that many people have shared in that appreciation instead of a few. So that’s why I’m evangelical about it…I think everyone should have a little taste of it. We should all participate in this upside.”

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